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In this episode of web3 with a16z crypto, host Robert Hackett talks with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour about how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting.
Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier.
Topics include:
How prediction markets make society “smarter”
The role of regulation in fintech innovation
Why Kalshi started with crypto payments
Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance
Building consumer trust and network effects
Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha
This episode kicks off a special series of interviews recorded live at our recent Founders Summit. Subscribe to web3 with a16z crypto for more conversations with founders and builders shaping the decentralized future.
Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now?
00:29 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable
01:20 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy
02:33 – Going global with stablecoins
05:22 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered
07:14 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models
07:45 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events
10:19 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat
11:33 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation
14:00 – Momentum after the presidential election
16:15 – How policy in DC really works
17:24 – The hidden advantage of being regulated
18:20 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more
20:15 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”)
As always, none of the following should be taken as investment, business, legal, or tax advice. Please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.
