Prediction markets hit a record $10.8 billion in weekly trading volume in the week ending June 15 — their biggest week ever. Several big events coincided that contributed to the all-time high: the SpaceX IPO, a U.S.-Iran peace deal, the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup, and the opening of the World Cup, among them.
A year ago, a typical week on prediction markets ran around half a billion dollars, and even the busiest weeks stayed under $1 billion. That floor has climbed steadily since. It climbed past $1 billion last fall, past $4 billion by winter, and into the $6–7 billion range this spring.
Even a quiet week today dwarfs the biggest week of a year ago.
Prediction market open interest — the sum of outstanding contracts that remain “open” in the market — has also reached a record weekly high. It hit $1.48 billion in the week ending June 15, the second record-setting week in a row.
Unlike trading volume, which reflects daily activity, open interest tracks the capital that participants have deployed and which remains at risk. The recent surge represents a roughly sixfold increase over the past year, highlighting how users are maintaining longer-term financial positions and how prediction markets are maturing into durable market infrastructure.
Big events bring in the crowds, and more traders are staying to participate in a wide range of markets across politics, economics, culture, crypto, and more.
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Acknowledgments: Data, charts, and editorial by Ryan Holloway (a16z crypto data analyst consultant) and Robert Hackett (a16z crypto features editor and head of special projects).
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