Newsletter: Holiday shopping inspiration, prediction markets, Jolt updates
Gearing up for the holidays: Our 2024 gift guide
The holidays are just around the corner, which means it’s a great time to explore the latest gear and gadgets. Whether you’re looking for thoughtful gift ideas, planning a tech upgrade, or just trawling through seasonal sales, this guide offers a curated selection of products to consider, sourced from the a16z crypto team, which is passionate about technologies of all types.
Just as we recommend what we’re reading every year, we’ve gathered 80+ personal recommendations — from computer accessories and smart AI-powered devices to beauty, health, and wellness products. Some repeat recommendations this season include Anker charging bricks, Oura rings, Steam Deck gaming consoles, coffee makers, and all manner of racing simulators.
But there’s a lot more, ranging in price with options for all ages: from fidget toys and milk frothers to synthesizers and saunas.
Hype vs. reality: Prediction markets
Alex Tabarrok, Scott Duke Kominers, and Sonal Chokshi
The premise — and promise — of prediction markets has been talked about for a long time, but they finally hit the main stage in the most recent election. So what worked (and didn’t) this time? Where do pollsters, superforecasters, domain experts, and journalists come in (or out)?
Our latest podcast dives deep into all of the above, and it also explores:
- How, why, and where these markets work;
- The design challenges and opportunities, including implications for builders;
- Other information aggregation mechanisms;
- Interesting applications in AI, scientific replication, DeSci, futarchy/governance, and more in the near and distant future.
Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University and chair in economics at the Mercatus Center; and Scott Duke Kominers is a research partner at a16z crypto, and professor at Harvard Business School.
For more on prediction markets, here are some of the resources and research mentioned in the episode:
- A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem, Dražen Prelec, H. Sebastian Seung & John McCoy, (Nature)
- Everything is priced in, r/wallstreetbets (Reddit)
- From prediction markets to info finance, Vitalik Buterin (vitalik.eth)
- Idea futures – the concept, Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
- The use of knowledge in society, Friedrich A. Hayek (Econlib)
- Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs, Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
More news and updates…
Changelog: Update on Jolt, our open source zkVM
In April, the a16z crypto research and engineering teams released an initial implementation of Jolt, the most performant zkVM. Since then, the Jolt team and open source contributors have made several improvements to Jolt’s performance and usability.
We released three updates that continue to advance this tool: first, an update on improvements since April, especially in costs to the verifier; second, a video overview of Jolt’s development roadmap. Finally, a16z crypto Research Partner Justin Thaler wrote about “formal verification” for Jolt — that is, the effort to eliminate all bugs, and then prove that they’re gone. As Justin writes, “Today, zkVM toolchains are almost certainly full of bugs. We should stop pretending they’re not.”
Stay tuned for more developments in 2025.
Bonus watch: Justin speaking on privacy, cryptography, and all things zero knowledge at the recent DC Privacy Summit.
Regulatory news and moves: At the SEC
The United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas ruled that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) exceeded its statutory authority in adopting the new Dealer Rule. This decision is a significant victory for the crypto industry: The expanded rule could have potentially included participants in decentralized finance, especially liquidity providers in AMMs. (Blockchain Association)
Eighteen Republican attorneys general also sued the SEC, arguing that the agency’s approach to digital assets and secondary markets is unlawful and violates the Administrative Procedures Act. In related news, SEC chair Gary Gensler announced that he will step down on January 20, 2025. (See our latest regulatory update for more.)
— a16z crypto editorial, research, and regulatory teams
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